I think I identified my problem, and figured I'd share with the community if anyone ever sees this breadcrumb again.
I was trying to use a gateway group so that I had fallback for PBR - "prefer WWAN, use WAN if you must" and that didn't quite seem to be working as expected; I'd get SYN-SENT on WWAN and active state on WAN.
Once I changed the PBR rule to use the gateway and not the gateway group (and, of course, tossed the states on WAN), traffic started flowing as desired.
Fun, fun, fun.