be honest are you worried about corona



  • Vaccination .... true, that would be great.

    And while they are at it, is there news from the AIDS, Influenze, Yellow fever, Dengue and the Hepatitis family front ? Just to name a few.
    Oh... hundred of billion $(€) have already been invested but nada ... ... several hundreds of millions died already. More bearable because it happens mostly "elsewhere", or because we get used to it ?

    A vaccin isn't always found ...



  • @Gertjan said in be honest are you worried about corona:

    Vaccination .... true, that would be great.

    And while they are at it, is there news from the AIDS, Influenze, Yellow fever, Dengue and the Hepatitis family front ? Just to name a few.
    Oh... hundred of billion $(€) have already been invested but nada ... ... several hundreds of millions died already. More bearable because it happens mostly "elsewhere", or because we get used to it ?

    A vaccin isn't always found ...

    Just to be clear my stance is not to push a vaccine... in fact as you said lots of money/effort has been focused on other illnesses without positive results. My point is that I don't want to see millions of people (myself included) forced to be guinea pigs for the pharmaceutical industry. Legally prescribed drugs kill more Americans every year than 911, while other cheap/effective solutions for many chronic conditions are actively denigrated.

    I just watched a program about COVID and the vastly different conditions in NY, vs NH. Population density/influx of travellers clearly had a huge impact, but from what I observed in that documentary the health (due to poor economic status and/or unhealthy lifestyle) of a vast majority of the people was poor - malnutrition, morbid obesity and likely a lot of other "non-visible" issues because they can't afford health care--that's what lead to a much higher death rate.



  • What do u think now still a little bit .



  • @habil said in be honest are you worried about corona:

    Given that we don't have refrigerator trucks full of bodies, I'm getting less worried.

    The WHO can't even get their story straight..... anything other than the party line gets censored.... my BS meter is going off!



  • i hope people that all of you are healthy and will never get infected by corona but its not a joke see the brazil news - during one days 46 000 people have got sick with covid-19!!



  • Worldwide, 10M cases, 500K deaths. That's a 5% fatality rate.
    I can divide in my head! Still a rolling first wave.



  • @provels said in be honest are you worried about corona:

    Worldwide, 10M cases, 500K deaths. That's a 5% fatality rate.
    I can divide in my head! Still a rolling first wave.

    This article from Nature dated from June 16 of this year pegs the IFR number at 1% or less, with the generally agreed upon consensus being between 0.5% and 1%. This jives with several other stories I've found on the web.

    The true fatality rate calculation must take into affect all cases and not just those hospitalized or just those that have actually been tested. So that means there is some "slack" in the IFR (infection fatality rate) number because you have to estimate how many folks had the virus, recovered and were never tested nor hospitalized. Also have to tally up those asymptomatic folks (the ones who have or had the virus but no symptoms). The antibody tests are uncovering more and more asymptomatic folks.

    https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-01738-2.



  • One million plus people die a year from diseases spread via mosquito bites. Why are they not requiring everyone to wear mosquito nets?



  • @chpalmer

    Because Malaria, Dengue, etc are not human to human contagious.



  • @jwj said in be honest are you worried about corona:

    @chpalmer

    Because Malaria, Dengue, etc are not human to human contagious.

    Will you wouldn't need mosquito nets for human to human contact.. My point is why are they not as worried about something that is clearly killing allot of people?!? How about the 200,000+ people a year killed by mistakes in the hospitals? https://www.cnbc.com/2018/02/22/medical-errors-third-leading-cause-of-death-in-america.html

    This all seems like a big exercise in control to me. Yes it is dangerous to certain people. But never before have healthy people been quarantined due to a pandemic. In fact after the flu pandemic of 1918-1920 it was decided by medical experts at the time that outdoor hospitals would be used to help people have fresh air and sunlight to help kill off the spread. So why did the governments tell people they should stay inside with their stagnant air and not recommend that they turn on every exhaust fan they have in the house 24/7?

    If your worried then by all means do everything you can to avoid other people. But by all means get out in the open and get some sunlight whenever possible.

    I guess what Im saying is that I am no more worried about this than I am anything else. And Im not gonna let it stress me out. ☺



  • @chpalmer

    "My point is why are they not as worried about something that is clearly killing allot of people?!?"

    You're trying to appear like you have some knowledge in this area. You clearly don't. Do you live in a place with endemic malaria? Dengue? Have you ever seen someone with Malaria? I have. I have spent the better part of 2 decades working with populations that do live with the risk of mosquito born disease. Cambodia, Laos, Burma. Enormous amounts of money and time are spent on mosquito born disease.

    You also appear to be motivated by other things than facts based on your signature, so I'll add you to my ignore list from here on.



  • No worries. I won't let that stress me out either.



  • @chpalmer said in be honest are you worried about corona:

    This all seems like a big exercise in control to me. Yes it is dangerous to certain people. But never before have healthy people been quarantined due to a pandemic. In fact after the flu pandemic of 1918-1920 it was decided by medical experts at the time that outdoor hospitals would be used to help people have fresh air and sunlight to help kill off the spread. So why did the governments tell people they should stay inside with their stagnant air and not recommend that they turn on every exhaust fan they have in the house 24/7?

    If your worried then by all means do everything you can to avoid other people. But by all means get out in the open and get some sunlight whenever possible.

    I guess what Im saying is that I am no more worried about this than I am anything else. And Im not gonna let it stress me out. ☺

    @chpalmer -- I tend to agree. I am concerned that we don't get any details on what a "Case" is. Frail old/sick people, people who have mild to moderate symptoms are very different from a practical matter. If you look at this www you tube com / watch?v=kIngGuof9E0 ... and it seems quite credible, a lot of the excess deaths might be due to mismanagement of treatment.

    The collective "We" need to wake up "think", "question" and "debate". Unfortunately as a profession medicine has a tendency to be dictatorial and arrogant. Some doctors report having success with hydroxichloriquine, (a drug which can be dangerous in some cases/wrong dose/etc.), but instead of conducting a study to find out how to make it work, there appears to be active sabotage www you tube com / watch?v=q41F11PzB-A to push Vaccines as our "only salvation".

    The same media that spouts "Hydroxychloroquine too risky", in the next breath is pushing an experimental vaccine that may have far worse consquences for humanity just doesn't make sense except if it is propaganda to sell vaccines and make buckets of money for the promoters.

    For anyone who cares to educate themself I would recommend that you google "Suzanne Humphries". She has a lot of good research (from peer reviewed sources), she talks about the immune system, how vaccines work, the medical literature that is there that is being ignored etc. Blindly trusting the FDA/CDC/WHO - who have all been found guilty of malfeasance over the years without transparancy is like letting pedofiles ran a day care unsupervised!

    History has shown that kernels of truth emerge long before the masses (an the power groups) are willing to accept it. I beleive Galileo was just recently (within the last 10 years) pardoned for having the audacity to challange the orthodox wisdom and suggest that the earth revolves around the sun, and that the earth was not the centre of the universe. Truth survives in the light, lies don't.

    If everyone educates themself and influences those within their immediate sphere of influence we can create change.



  • China seals off county of 400K people. Just for fun, I guess.



  • I see totals each day, means nothing. Of course it will be higher than the day before. I see cases per day, again meaningless because testing is increasing so of course cases per day will increase. What I can't find is cases per day per 100k tests. Has anyone seen this so we have an idea if cases are still increasing, leveled off, etc? I can find it by country on one given day, useless. Can't find it on a daily calendar over the past couple weeks or a month. Be nice to find it on a state level, or better, county level. So my worry is not knowing what's REALLY going on. The data given seems tailored to have us believe it is now getting worse so we need to go back to a hard lockdown again. I'm not buying it til I see useful data with a denominator that puts the numbers in perspective with the testing variable.



  • @markn6262 How's this? https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
    Somehow I doubt cases could be confirmed without testing...

    Maybe the US can dump some of those 29M hydroxychloroquine doses they bought in error to those countries affected by malaria.



  • @provels Certainly cases can’t be reported without testing. The link just provides more totals. No numbers are denominated to the # of tests done. Example, if 1 confirmed case in 10 tests on day 1. Then 10 confirmed cases with 100 tests on day two well 10 is worse than 1 right? No, the rate of new cases is the same on day 2 compared to day 1. Maybe this simplification may clarify my worry.



  • @markn6262 Perhaps I misunderstand, but what's wrong with the charts?
    c8ea5eef-a826-4289-9d32-230eb4adc24f-image.png



  • @provels 10% is 10%. Have you seen a chart showing "Daily New Cases per 100k Tested"? This chart is missing the denominator so it provides no perspective to the testing variable. It would be an accurate representation of new cases if from Jan22 til Jun24 they tested exactly the same number of people each day.



  • Yes, having only positive cases without knowing the total tested is only partially revealing. Percentage of tests positive is potentially more revealing. Problem is the ridiculous, stupid, relaxation of the standards that has allow every testing outfit/pharma corp to dump an unproven test (PCR and Antigen) into the market. At this point I would trust the judgement of a presumptive positive diagnosis by a clinician over the highly selective but not very sensitive testing crap that is out there. The negative test results aren't worth reporting as they are likely to be false negative.

    The random nature of testing is also problematic. The sample of people being tested isn't a representative sample. Well insured white people get tested. Others not so much. A coordinated, statistically valid, testing strategy (a good, sensitive, antigen test) of the population is need to establish a baseline and then that sample group needs to be repeatedly tested over time. That's been done in some states, NY and NJ, with good results. To not do this on a national level is scandalous, incompetent and just plan stupid.

    Even hospitalization rates are not totally revealing. A significant percentage (~43% by one account I have seen) of deaths happen in managed care facilities. These facilities almost never move a resident to the hospital, so not counted as a hospitalization. More profitable to treat in place.

    Dead is dead. Or is it? We may never know the actual death rate as many states only report the death if the person was tested before death. Too many people only seek care once they are in respiratory distress. They die before getting tested and presumptive Covid deaths are often not tallied.

    At the end of the day the biggest danger right now is BS. BS is BS and you can't BS your way out of a pandemic. Are we great yet?



  • Followeth The Money
    By Gemma Correll
    Plague2.jpg


  • LAYER 8 Netgate

    No. I am not worried about the 'rona.

    Watch it magically disappear as a problem on 2020-11-04. Wait for it.



  • @Derelict LOL, what date format is that? November 4 or April 11??



  • @provels

    is like Hungarian 😂


  • LAYER 8 Netgate

    YYYY-MM-DD. Pretty sure it's an RFC. Not sure which one.



  • @Derelict
    I say, Hungarian (I was born there)


  • LAYER 8 Netgate

    All I know is it is the only unambiguous way to represent a date. For you non-US folks that is the day after the next election of the CEO of the federal government of the United States.



  • the Hungarian people - logical people 😉
    We have 14 a Nobel laureate Not to mention Neumann He was born there too

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/John_von_Neumann

    we fully agree with that "next election of the CEO" .......................



  • @DaddyGo said in be honest are you worried about corona:

    CEO

    I'll miss the twitter entertainment ....



  • @Gertjan

    exactly
    therefore, we do not drink disinfectant with a UV lamp in our hand 😂



  • @markn6262 @jwj
    I'll plead ignorance, but why is the denominator so important when the positive cases are so massive? It's not like this is some lab experiment with a control group, etc. Areas like FL, TX, AZ, CA, can barely keep up as is. People are generally getting tested because they have symptoms, it's not an end to end testing of the population. I haven't been tested, have you folks?



  • @provels It's not. You're certainly not ignorant! The cases are massive and the accounting is incomplete. Particularly in the US we are approaching this with our heads stuck completely up our butts. Just try to be smart, avoid the fools. See a bunch of non mask wearing people in the bread aisle? Wait a few minutes for them to leave and then go in and get your bread.

    Yes I have been tested, twice.



  • @jwj
    Why were you tested? Assuming you presented no symptoms?
    At least the deaths/tested is falling.
    f43ea2ce-cae9-4717-9f5d-d69114d7110f-image.png



  • The number of deaths in my state has also plummeted as a percentage of positive cases compared to late March and very early April- even while the number of new cases has increased ("surged" to use the favorite word of this week ☺ ). It's interesting to see the number of hospitalizations decrease also (in the majority of locations) and the number of deaths decrease rather sharply (in pretty much every location). Either the virus that folks are catching now is some mutated less deadly form, or the treatments have dramatically improved. I'm thinking it is probably the latter. Learning that a cytokine storm was a big contributor to the deaths of many victims was key in my opinion. Now doctors are alert for that and can administer counteracting drugs quickly if required.

    I have not gone off searching for one on the web, but it would be interesting to see what ratio of the folks getting positive test results are asymptomatic. As more and more folks are getting tested due to the availability of so many free testing sites, surely some asymptomatic folks are being detected. You would also hope that blood banks and doctor's offices are screening routine blood draws for coronavirus antibodies to see what percentage of folks exist out there who have likely developed an immunity, or at least a resistance to the cornavirus.

    To me there are only two paths for this virus. The best case path is a safe and effective vaccine is quickly developed and widely deployed and cornavirus joins the ranks of polio as a largely elminated threat. The other path is one where no effective vaccine is developed. If that is the case, then coronavirus will wind up being treated like all the other flu-like diseases. The falling death rate seems to indicate that the seriousness of the illness is declining for the majority of the population. You probably will still have to protect the truly vulnerable, but that's no different than before the outbreak where folks with seriously compromised immune systems kept themselves isolated (think cancer patients on chemo, for example). The rest of society operated normally.



  • Remains to be seen what happens when things get a bit more back to normal and people are mixing more, but it doesn't seem to have worked out too well for FL and TX. Schools still closed and as many of the still employed as possible working remotely. Glad I'm retired and don't have to mix with the public on a regular basis. Only put 800 miles on my car since December, LOL.

    Scheduled a double red blood draw at the Red Cross for next month. They are including Covid testing (assuming antibody).



  • I don't want to come across as cold and uncaring, but it is likely a good thing that more people are getting the virus and recovering (the falling death rate indicates higher recovery rates). That is the process that will build the so-called herd immunity the experts talk about.

    I don't think you can totally eradicate this virus with lockdowns because you can't truly lock down everything. Grocery stores have to stay open with their checkout clerks encountering every person that comes through. Other critical businesses have to stay open such as banks, and then you have critical industry such as power plants and all the factories that produce the food we eat. Then you need the truckers and railroads to haul all that stuff around and get it to the stores. So my point is there is no such thing as a total lockdown. So all that "critical infrastructure" that you must leave operating gives the virus a place to lurk. Every employee working in that critical infrastructure is a potential spreader. Then the instant you start opening things up, the virus comes out of hiding, cases go up and you are back to square one again. This is because everyone who is locked down and isolated will develop exactly zero immunity to the virus.

    But if you have reached the magical herd immunity threshold, the virus is effectively knee-capped.



  • @bmeeks said in be honest are you worried about corona:

    But if you have reached the magical herd immunity threshold, the virus is effectively knee-capped.

    Yes, I think that will end up requiring a vaccine. Then the same herd immunity that protects anti-vaxxers from polio, measles, and mumps will exist.



  • @provels
    Agreed. And my point about more people getting the virus and recovering is that we should not let the media histronics about rising cases terrify us into new lockdowns just yet. We just need to closely monitor the death rate and the hospitalization rate (in particular the ICU admissions as those signal serious illness as compared to just a hospitalization stay in a normal bed). If the death rate stays steady or continues to trend down, and ICU admissions stay manageable, my vote is we let the virus infection play out and that's how we finally get our herd immunity. That's not to say that in specific locations more stringent measures might be necessary for some activities, but I think the wholesale lockdowns we tried in March and April were actually not the best strategy. After all, they seem to have failed at eliminating the virus spread. And I think that no matter when a state "opened up", cases were going to go up. A highly contagious virus is going to spread until its potential victims have immunity. Hiding from it is not a good long-term strategy. You get that needed immunity either from a vaccine or from the herd immunity.

    Maybe a vaccine that is effective and proven safe arrives quickly. But in case one does not show up, we need that herd immunity to start kicking in. We can't wear masks and stay 6 feet or more apart from other humans for the rest of our life. What kind of life would that be anyway? We are, by nature, social animals after all.



  • @provels Tested to allow multiple international trips. Occupational hazard.



  • Based on what we're seeing today in the U.S., we should really be worrying about the fall ... it looks as if it will hit us like an eighteen wheeler that lost its brakes ... the good news is capitalism might be doomed forever.


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