With debug logs on I got some more useful info. I just rebooted the server to make sure everything starts from scratch.
First, only some of the tunnels came up. Of those tunnels that came up only some of them got their child security associations. This is what is logged for the transport mode security associations that didn't come up (I can see this same thing in the log for each):
Mar 28 11:57:36 gateway2 charon: 15[IKE] traffic selectors 222.127.xx.xx/32|/0 222.127.xx.xx/32|/0 === 193.239.xx.xx/32|/0 193.239.xx.xx/32|/0 inacceptable
Mar 28 11:57:36 gateway2 charon: 15[IKE] <con12|19>traffic selectors 222.127.xx.xx/32|/0 222.127.xx.xx/32|/0 === 193.239.xx.xx/32|/0 193.239.xx.xx/32|/0 inacceptable
Mar 28 11:57:36 gateway2 charon: 15[IKE] failed to establish CHILD_SA, keeping IKE_SA
Mar 28 11:57:36 gateway2 charon: 15[IKE] <con12|19>failed to establish CHILD_SA, keeping IKE_SA
For the tunnel mode connections, if I grep for the IP of the other end I can't see anything like this in the log, I can only see the send/receive packet entries so I might need to disable all tunnels to be able to get the logs just for that specific host…</con12|19></con12|19>