I think I figured this out. It appears that newer browsers make multiple embryonic connections to the user's homepage – based on my testing they try to make more than 16 connections, which is the max allowed to the portal at the same time.
Two questions:
On the portal settings page (Services -> Captive portal -> Captive portal tab), if the maximum concurrent connections setting is blank, does that mean that the default of 4 per IP is used, or does that mean the same as setting it to zero? When I set it to zero and click Save, the number disappears -- so does that mean 4 connections per IP, or the max of 16?
Is there a way to increase the max beyond 16 to see if that resolves the problem with newer browsers attempting to make more than 16 connections? I didn't see that as a system tunable.
Update on more browser testing: this doesn't appear to be a problem on Firefox 5.0 and IE8. So far I've only seen the problem on Chrome 12.x and IE9...but that represents a significant portion of users so would be great to get the problem fixed.
Thanks,
Mike