@planedrop FWIW I restarted our backup router just now. The "wait" counter never reset because our a/v was interrupting the "up?" check due to the self-signed cert. (this is not going to happen to most people, but is expected behavior in this case, with Bitdefender)
Turns out the web GUI was using a new "GUI default" cert that it created at the boot instead of the real cert I mentioned above. Not real sure of the path there. I thought when I posted above it had already been set to use the new cert, but I can't go back and look again, now.