@mi8088 The firewall was sending traffic out, but the cable modem was dropping it.
There's really only two fixes I can see:
The cable modems need to change their behavior to accommodate changes in MAC addresses. pfSense's CARP IP and all associated traffic needs to use the same MAC address that doesn't change when failing over.I ended up disabling CARP on the WAN IP and haven't had any issues with the connection going down since.