I can't recall any circumstance where the interface and RRD stats on a stable release were inaccurate, those counters are pretty straight forward. Two completely diff means of calculating bandwidth, so if they match, you can pretty much be guaranteed that's reality.
ISPs can measure bandwidth in a variety of ways. They may not count data to certain destinations (like things on their own network, especially if they have a IPTV/streaming video service or similar).
You can run a packet capture on WAN, packet length 64 to minimize capture size over a longer period, count 0, all else at defaults. Start the capture, leave it running for a few hours, then go back and stop it. Download the resulting pcap, open in Wireshark, go to Statistics>Conversations and you'll see what you're actually passing on the wire (and what your ISP's passing you).